Hanlon’s Razor: The Power of Assuming Simplicity Over Malice

Last week, I talked about Occam’s Razor. Staying with the razor-related mental models, let’s talk about a similar one, Hanlon’s Razor. I would argue that this is one of the most relevant models in today’s world, full of misinformation, fake news, and alternative facts dividing society.

We have reached a point in our society’s development where we assume that everyone is against us and everyone is trying to get us. We then contribute to the bad intentions of others even when there are none. Enter Hanlon’s Razor.

It is a widely used philosophical heuristic that suggests that we should never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

This principle encourages people to consider incompetence, misunderstanding, or human error as more likely explanations for an event rather than assuming deliberate wrongdoing.

What is Hanlon’s Razor?

Hanlon’s Razor is a principle in philosophy and decision-making that advises against assuming malice when a simpler explanation, such as incompetence, ignorance, or miscommunication, can explain the event. The phrase’s origin is attributed to Robert J. Hanlon, who included it in a 1980 submission to a book titled Murphy’s Law Book Two: More Reasons Why Things Go Wrong by Arthur Bloch.

Although the phrase gained popularity in the late 20th century, similar ideas have existed throughout history. The concept aligns with Occam’s Razor, which prioritizes simple explanations and echoes similar maxims like “Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” This principle suggests that misunderstandings and errors are far more common than conspiracies or ill intent.

How Hanlon’s Razor Works

Hanlon’s Razor operates as a mental shortcut to prevent hasty judgments. Here’s how it can be applied in different scenarios.

Workplace Conflicts

Situation: A colleague forgets to include you in an important email.
Malicious Interpretation: They are trying to exclude you intentionally.
Hanlon’s Razor Interpretation: They were busy or overlooked it by accident.
Outcome: Instead of assuming bad faith, you clarify the issue and get included in future communications.

Political Issues

Situation: A government policy rollout has serious flaws.
Malicious Interpretation: The government deliberately wants to harm the public.
Hanlon’s Razor Interpretation: Bureaucracy, inefficiency, or lack of foresight led to poor execution.
Outcome: Rather than jumping to conspiracy theories, you focus on advocating for better solutions.

Customer Service

Situation: Your food order is wrong.
Malicious Interpretation: The restaurant staff intentionally got your order wrong.
Hanlon’s Razor Interpretation: A miscommunication happened between the server and kitchen.
Outcome: You politely ask for a correction instead of assuming the worst.

Healthcare Emergency

Situation: Your government mandates vaccines against a virus that is rapidly spreading around the world.
Malicious Interpretation: The government infringes on my rights and wants to control my life.
Hanlon’s Razor Interpretation: The government officials are doing their best to contain the threat to the health of the public.
Outcome: You consider taking the vaccine not based on paranoia and your grief with politicians but based on the actual medical needs and your duty as a member of society.

Medical Issues

Situation: You don’t feel well, and you visit a doctor who suggests you take rather expensive pills.
Malicious Interpretation: The doctor is on the payroll of the pharmaceutical companies and doesn’t care about your health but rather about their wallets.
Hanlon’s Razor Interpretation: The doctor is doing their best to increase your chances of fast recovery.
Outcome: While the doctor may be incentivized to prescribe certain drugs, you follow their advice as they have more experience in the area than you do. Possibly, you can ask if there is a cheaper alternative and listen to their explanation.

By applying Hanlon’s Razor, we reduce unnecessary hostility, avoid misjudging people’s intentions, and encourage a more empathetic and rational perspective. We simplify our lives and increase our enjoyment of the world around us.

Famous People Who Used Hanlon’s Razor

Various historical and contemporary figures have embraced Hanlon’s Razor or similar principles in their thinking.

Stephen Covey, author of The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, taught the value of understanding others rather than assuming bad intentions. He suggested that we listen to understand other people’s views before pushing our own narratives. In his words, “Seek first to understand, then to be understood.”

Barack Obama, a former U.S. President, often highlighted the importance of empathy and recognizing bureaucratic inefficiencies rather than assuming malicious intent. Obama’s approach to policy and governance acknowledged that inefficiencies often result from human error rather than deliberate wrongdoing.

Napoleon Bonaparte, one of history’s greatest military strategists, applied a form of Hanlon’s Razor in assessing battlefield intelligence. A quote contributed to him says “Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” Though there are some doubts about whether he said it, the fact remains that he understood that mistakes on the battlefield were often the result of poor planning or miscommunication rather than enemy deceit.

The Pros and Cons of Hanlon’s Razor

While Hanlon’s Razor is a useful mental model, it has both advantages and limitations.

Pros of Hanlon’s Razor

It encourages logical, non-emotional analysis of situations.
It helps avoid conspiracy theories and paranoia.
It prevents unnecessary arguments by assuming good faith.
It encourages open communication and problem-solving.
It helps build stronger relationships by giving others the benefit of the doubt.
It reduces hostility and misunderstandings.
It encourages focus on structural issues rather than scapegoating individuals.
It helps leaders address root causes rather than personal blame.

Cons of Hanlon’s Razor

It can ignore the fact that some individuals or groups do act with malicious intent.
It can lead to naivety if overused.
It may not always be applicable in politics, as incompetence and malice can coexist in corruption or fraud cases.
It may lead to a lack of vigilance as some threats, like cybersecurity or terrorism, can’t be prevented if the attacker’s innocence is assumed.
It can lead to a lack of accountability, as assuming incompetence over malice might let people avoid responsibility for serious mistakes.
It may ignore the fact that some errors deserve accountability, even if unintentional.
In Western law, some legal situations require intent to be established, and assuming mistakes over intent can impact justice.

Putting It All Together

Hanlon’s Razor is a valuable heuristic that encourages people to prioritize human error over malice when interpreting events. This principle is useful in daily life, business, science, and leadership, helping to reduce unnecessary conflict and misunderstanding.

However, while it serves as a practical rule of thumb, it is not infallible. There are genuine cases of malice that require scrutiny, and blindly applying Hanlon’s Razor can lead to ignoring real harm.

The best approach is to balance skepticism with pragmatism. Give people the benefit of the doubt while remaining aware of situations where intentional harm may be at play.

If you are interested in other mental models, consider Inversion Thinking, First Principles Thinking, and Second-Order Thinking.

Photo: Generated with Dall-E